課程資訊
課程名稱
決策分析與賽局
Decision Analysis and Games 
開課學期
107-1 
授課對象
工學院  工業工程學研究所  
授課教師
吳政鴻 
課號
IE7036 
課程識別碼
546 M3240 
班次
 
學分
3.0 
全/半年
半年 
必/選修
必修 
上課時間
 
上課地點
 
備註
上課時間、地點請洽所辦公室與洪一薰合授
限碩士在職專班生
總人數上限:40人 
Ceiba 課程網頁
http://ceiba.ntu.edu.tw/1071DG 
課程簡介影片
 
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課程概述

This course consists of two sections: decision analysis and games.
The first half of this course is an application-oriented course on decision making. We will emphasize the use of dynamic decision methods in theory and practice, especially when uncertainties and multiple decision makers are issues. These methods are widely used and covered in other courses, including decision analysis, stochastic optimization methods, and game theory. However, none of the previous courses emphasize the dynamic interaction between decision-makers and between decisions in different time periods. Different from other courses in decision making, this course will focus on the multiple period, multiple decision maker decision problems. We will also emphasize on the modeling of uncertainties in multi-period decision-making problems. Applications considered in this course include supply chain coordination, revenue management, and technology management. However, the topics discussed also have wide applications to other financial and economic systems.
The second half of the course covers the topics of games application on industry and the course is designed to help students connect game theory with practices in issues of supply chains, industrial economics, or some related topics in decentralized systems, where individual entrepreneurs have their own profit functions and often are unwilling to reveal their own information to each other or the public. In this course we will study the interactions between multiple players (decision makers). Such problems arise frequently in supply chain applications. The interaction of a firm with its competitors, customers and suppliers can be modeled as a game, and hence, our main tool of analysis in this course will be Game Theory. Course goals will be accomplished through lectures, homework, readings and case studies.
 

課程目標
1. Model problems in which decision-making is an issue
2. Construct and solve multi-period decision making problems
3. Know how to include randomness in multi-period decision-making problems
4. Understand basic stochastic dynamic programming
5. Understand basic game theory and its application to dynamic decision problems
6. Introduce basics of games application on industry
7. Explain the idea of looking forward and working back
8. Understand implicit collusion (cooperation)
9. Apply game concept to industry economics
 
課程要求
• Homework assignments will be posted on the course website after the lecture.
• Notify me ASAP if you are unable to take an exam or meet a deadline. In each instance, we will discuss how you will make up for the missed work.
• You are allowed (indeed, encouraged) to consult with other students enrolled in the class during the conceptualization of a problem. However, all submitted homework assignments should represent your own efforts. In particular, you are not allowed to obtain, look at, use, or in anyway attempt to derive advantage from the existence of solutions for this or other courses.

 
預期每週課後學習時數
 
Office Hours
另約時間 備註: 吳政鴻, 國青116, (02) 3366-9505, wuchn@ntu.edu.tw  
指定閱讀
There is no required textbook for the course. Required reading materials will be distributed either in class or through the course website. 
參考書目
1. R. T. Clemen, Making Hard Decisions: An Introduction to Decision Analysis, 2nd edition, South-Western College Pub, 1997
2. E. Denardo, Dynamic Programming: Models and Applications, 1982 (out of print)
3. L. Pepall, D. Richards, and G. Morman, Industrial Organization: Contemporary Theory and Empirical Applications, 4th edition, Wiley-Blackwell, 2008
4. Game Theory for Applied Economists by Robert Gibbons, Princeton University Press (1992)
5. Thinking Strategically-The Competitive Edge in Business, Politics, and Everyday Life by Avinash Dixit and Barry Nalebuff (1993)
 
評量方式
(僅供參考)
 
No.
項目
百分比
說明
1. 
Decision Analysis 
50% 
 
2. 
Games 
50% 
 
 
課程進度
週次
日期
單元主題
第1週
  決策分析概論:決策問題分類與目標訂定 
第2週
  系統化的決策:影響圖與決策樹 
第3週
  風險下的決策:敏感度分析及資訊的價值
 
第4週
  決策創意及決策者互動(決策分析專題成果研討) 
第5週
  賽局 理論簡介:靜態與動賽局 理論簡介:靜態與動賽局 
第6週
  賽局理論之產業應用:放眼未來、往回決策 
第7週
  賽局理論之產業應用:彼不知己及隱性合作  
第8週
  應用賽局理論分析產業結構